The fast-money consensus seems to be cautiously “reflationary”, i.e. looking for a further rise in global business sentiment and a pick-up in commodity prices fuelling higher inflation expectations. This would be somewhat bad news for duration, bode for a steepening of the curve and arguably also bad news for the greenback. Any news which could wrong-foot these trends might perhaps rock the boat more so than news which corroborates this narrative. Perhaps the curve inversion from August 2019 was a signal of enough damage to the economy to (still) bring about a recession or a severe slowdown? If so, a sudden setback in global PMI or a sudden rise in US unemployment could send risk assets lower. Another potential driver could be if the Democratic nomination leads to a presidential candidate favoring banning buybacks.