The Phase 1 deal has not yet been a massive game-changer for USD/CNY. The tide has turned but the potential for further CNY strengthening is probably limited. The Phase 1 deal mainly concentrates on agricultural trade (as far as we are concerned currently), why the tech-war could remain in place. Just to put things into perspective; China imported roughly $10-15 billion worth of agricultural goods from the US in 2018 (and even less in 2019), while the import of semi-conductors accounted for 30 times that amount. It would have been a much much bigger deal for the CNY, if the tech-war (Huawei etc..) was called off – but it’s not. China will buy some more Soybeans instead. The outlook for world trade in Semis is though improving modestly but from abysmal growth levels. Judged from current semi-shipment trends we judge that 6.80 is a decent target in USD/CNY.