ISM manufacturing has started to show a “phase one” bounce following the China/US trade deal. When one weights the Philly Fed & Empire State surveys in a similar way as the crucial ISM manufacturing gauge is constructed, this ISM-weighted average suggests further upside to the ISM in 2020H1 – perhaps as high as 55, though that number will probably need to be adjusted lower following next week’s data. The Empire State/NY Fed survey – is due Tuesday, February 18 and Philly Fed is due Thursday, February 20.FOMC minutes from the January meeting are released in the middle of the week, Wednesday 19 February. If the Fed were to shift focus from “sustaining the expansion” to care about frothy asset prices, we could be in for a wild ride, so that’s something game-changey to look for (though they won’t).