Send me real-time posts from this site at my email
Macro Charts

Political issues brewing in Italy?

Also of interest for dollar bears is the situation in Italy where political uncertainty has been on the rise on reports that Di Maio, leader of the Five Star Movement (M5S), has stepped down as leader of the party. 

Since investors’ main concern for 2020 is the US election, a further rise in European political uncertainty could constitute somewhat of a grey swan and be bad news for the EUR. What’s more, being long Italian debt is a consensus trade for 2020 – making BTPs vulnerable to any associated de-risking. 

Popular support for M5S has dropped from highs around 35% to levels around 15% – the opposite to the support for Salvini’s League. A new election, with a new government, seems to have become more likely. 

On average, Italian governments last for 11 months, so perhaps a new one will be formed in August 2020? 

At the time of writing, few expect Di Maio’s troubles to cause the government to collapse.

Welcome! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue